Season preview: Tips for this year's AFL premiership

Somehow that's seemed even more acute this year, not just because the Test cricket schedule was a little underwhelming, but coming off a 2023 AFL grand final many good judges believe was close to the greatest of all time.

Collingwood's epic four-point win over Brisbane will live long in the memory as a testament to everything our game should be and the perfect denouement to what was an outstanding season of football.

Of nine finals last September, five were decided by just seven points or less, the Pies winning their three finals by a total of just 12 points. Last year, there were 216 games. No fewer than 53 of them, just on a quarter, were determined by less than 10 points. That's more than a couple of thrilling finishes each week.

No wonder we're hanging out for more. And the good news is there's every chance we'll be seeing more of the same.

Such is the narrowness of the gap between the best teams now that any sort of ladder prediction is fraught with danger. But let's have a crack anyway.

I don't often go out on a limb with my tipping, but this year I'm making an exception.

If you'd read the front pages of the newspapers the last few months, full of the off-field woes of the MELBOURNE football club's board stoushes, the mental health struggles of Clayton Oliver and the serious drug allegations surrounding Joel Smith, you'd think the Demons were in freefall.

I'm not claiming these issues aren't legitimate cause for concern.

But I do think the correlation between such matters and an entire team's on-field performance is often overstated. And I think predictions of the Demons' demise definitely have been. So much so that I'm still tipping Melbourne to win the 2024 premiership.

Even after the unfortunate retirement of Angus Brayshaw, I still think Melbourne has pound-for-pound the most talented list in the competition.

The midfield stars (Petracca, Oliver, Viney), supreme backmen (May, Lever). And a multi-pronged forward set-up which can get even better with the improvement of the very promising Jacob Van Rooyen and the addition of Shane McAdam and Jack Billings.

No, it wouldn't suit the convenient narrative about off-field strife inevitably translating to what happens on it.

But strip away the hype and Melbourne remains a team which has finished the season proper top four three years in a row and lost two finals last year by a total of just nine points. How can they suddenly not be a serious chance again?

And that, obviously, goes without saying about last year's grand finalists. COLLINGWOOD is now the AFL's oldest and most experienced list.

The difference between the Pies and last year's ageing Geelong, however, is that the Pies' oldest heads aren't as pivotal as the Cats' oldies were, four of the top six in last year's best and fairest (the Daicos brothers, Brayden Maynard and Isaac Quaynor) mid-20s or younger.

Collingwood is skillful and exciting, tough, and resilient, and under Craig McRae, brilliantly coached. And perhaps in a side chasing back-to-back, the coach's capacity to keep it "real" and egos in check might prove the Pies' greatest asset in 2024.

BRISBANE, meanwhile, continues to inch closer to that elusive flag. Can Chris Fagan's team get better again? Why not?

The Lions' backline improved its ranking from 10th to sixth in 2023, and now has talented former Crow Tom Doedee in the mix.

A multi-pronged attack last season had seven players who kicked 20 goals or more. And the midfield mix of names such as Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry and Dayne Zorko oozes class.

The Gabba, where Brisbane went 13-0 last year, is a fortress, and the Lions have won four of their past six finals after having lost five of the previous six.

It's taken five years of incremental improvement, but Brisbane is so close to the prize now it has to be a massive chance again.

There will be plenty expecting SYDNEY to challenge strongly again this season, and I'm one of them.

While the Swans ended up eighth last year after being a grand finalist, injuries were a constant bugbear which, touch wood, won't be an issue again.

John Longmire's team has the best group of youngsters in the competition and the arrival now of experienced quality ruckman Brodie Grundy and on-baller Taylor Adams should allow the likes of Errol Gulden, Nick Blakey, James Rowbottom and Chad Warner a lot more freedom.

Lance Franklin's retirement might actually help young key forwards Logan McDonald, Hayden McLean and Joel Amartey blossom, too.

I think the Swans are a massive chance to at least reach a grand final again this season.

Who else has some sort of chance of winning the 2024 premiership?

Well, I think GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY and CARLTON at least deserve some consideration, both incredibly having come from as low as 15th on the ladder more than halfway through last season to narrowly lose preliminary finals.

Last year's official "Coach of the Year" Adam Kingsley drew massive in-season improvement out of his troops in his debut season in charge, and the Giants who head into the new season will be a feared outfit.

That's thanks chiefly to a stingy defence led by Sam Taylor and damaging ball user Lachie Whitfield, the genius of skipper Toby Greene up forward, and a star-studded midfield with a terrific mix of silk, toughness and pure ball-winning ability via Tom Green, Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio.

I still have a few reservations about the Blues, but there's no doubt Carlton's best 22 has class to spare in all parts of the ground.

The defence is a top-notch unit likely to be strengthened further by the return of rebounder Zac Williams.

The midfield is as solid as any, Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh, Blake Acres and George Hewett in 2023 giving Carlton rankings of first, second and third respectively for contested possessions, disposals and clearances.

Those are my genuine premiership chances. So why no PORT ADELAIDE, good enough to finish the regular season third in 2023?

The Power lost me as a flag possibility with their meek straight sets exit from last year's finals.

That's five losses from their last seven finals, and that to me says something is amiss with this team psychologically.

The other finalist from 2023 I'm not factoring into flag calculations is ST KILDA.

The Saints are not without talent, and are clearly well-coached by Ross Lyon, but continue to get the very best from what's at their disposal in terms of talent, and until a few of their promising kids develop a little more, I think there's a significant enough gap between their best and the absolute best the AFL has to offer.

History says there's always at least a couple of changes to the eight each year.

Last year there were three in Carlton, St Kilda and Port Adelaide, each of whom sat immediately outside the 2022 top eight.

That augurs well this season for the likes of WESTERN BULLDOGS and ADELAIDE, but after being burned by the Dogs, whom I've tipped to win the flag the past two years, I'm simply not prepared to back their erratic ways any longer in terms of the ultimate goal, though I can seem them at least returning to finals action.

The Crows are an interesting case, too.

After a methodical build under Matthew Nicks, and precious little luck last season (five losses by a kick or less), finals will be the minimum expectation.

But their potency up forward isn't necessarily matched by solidity at the other end of the ground.

Can two finals perennials who unusually missed out last September in GEELONG and RICHMOND return to the fray?

I think the Cats might still have a fair bit of list renovation to do yet before they contend again, while the "ifs" about the Tigers are large up forward, where Jack Riewoldt is no more and Tom Lynch returns from serious injury.

ESSENDON? The Bombers certainly improved their depth with the trading-in of Ben McKay, Xavier Duursma, Todd Goldstein and Jade Gresham.

But while they now have plenty of players around the same level ability-wise, is there enough A-grade talent? Frankly, I'm not sure there is.

I feel the same way about FREMANTLE, particularly after losing genuine talent in Lachie Schultz and Liam Henry, and the Dockers second only to North Melbourne as the least experienced side in the competition this year.

I would have been a lot more bullish about HAWTHORN this season had a nightmarish start to the new year not robbed the Hawks of some serious depth via injury, particularly in defence.

Sam Mitchell's team might be clinging on for dear life for some time yet, and it can't really afford to cede its rivals that largesse.

Damien Hardwick is clearly GOLD COAST's biggest recruit in 2024, but even a triple premiership coach can only work with the tools at his disposal, and while the Suns continue to bolster their stocks of young talent, I still think they're at least a couple of years from being a serious contender.

Which leaves clearly the two worst-performed sides of the past two years in NORTH MELBOURNE and WEST COAST.

The Roos and Eagles have won just 10 games between them in that period.

The Eagles have started pensioning off the oldies and have No.1 draft pick in Harley Reid, while the Roos do have some serious young talent and at least now coach Alastair Clarkson's full-time availability.

But let's be honest, both these teams will be doing very well even to double last year's paltry three wins apiece.

Particularly given the depth of talent at the other end of the AFL ladder in season 2024.

As a famous Australian rock band once put it: "It's a long way to the top if you want to rock 'n roll".